6:30 PM 2/21/2020 - Richard Grenell Begins Overhauling Intelligence Office, Prompting Fears of Partisanship – The New York Times
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Richard Grenell Begins Overhauling Intelligence Office, Prompting Fears of Partisanship – The New York Times
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Richard Grenell Begins Overhauling Intelligence Office, Prompting Fears of Partisanship The New York Times
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| Richard Grenell Begins Overhauling Intelligence Office, Prompting Fears of Partisanship | ||
WASHINGTON — Richard Grenell’s tenure as the nation’s top intelligence official may be short-lived, but he wasted no time this week starting to shape his team of advisers, ousting his office’s No. 2 official — a longtime intelligence officer — and bringing in an expert on Trump conspiracy theories to help lead the agency, according to officials.
Mr. Grenell has also requested the intelligence behind the classified briefing last week before the House Intelligence Committee where officials told lawmakers that Russia was interfering in November’s presidential election and that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia favored President Trump’s re-election. The briefing later prompted Mr. Trump’s anger as he complained that Democrats would use it against him. Joseph Maguire, the former acting director of national intelligence, and his deputy, Andrew P. Hallman, resigned on Friday. Mr. Grenell told Mr. Hallman, popular in the office’s Liberty Crossing headquarters, that his service was no longer needed, according to two officials. Mr. Hallman, who has worked in the office or at the C.I.A. for three decades, expressed confidence in his colleagues in a statement but also referred to the “uncertainties that come with change.” The ouster of Mr. Hallman and exit of Mr. Maguire, who also oversaw the National Counterterrorism Center, allowed Mr. Grenell to install his own leadership team.
One of his first hires was Kashyap Patel, a senior National Security Council staff member and former key aide to Representative Devin Nunes, Republican of California and the former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Mr. Patel will have a mandate to “clean house,” CBS News reported, citing a person close to the matter.
Mr. Patel was best known as the lead author of a politically charged memo two years ago that accused F.B.I. and Justice Department leaders of abusing their surveillance powers to spy on a former Trump campaign adviser. The memo was widely criticized as misleading, though an inspector general later found other problems with aspects of the surveillance. Working with Mr. Nunes, Mr. Patel began what they called Objective Medusa to examine the F.B.I.’s investigation into whether anyone associated with the Trump campaign conspired with Russia’s election interference in 2016. “I hired him to bust doors down,” Mr. Nunes told the author Lee Smith for his book “The Plot Against the President,” which chronicles Mr. Patel’s investigations on behalf of the Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee. Mr. Patel was interviewed extensively in the book, which claims without proof that journalists, diplomats, law enforcement and intelligence officials engaged in a vast plot to undermine Mr. Trump’s campaign and then bring him down as president. As acting director of national intelligence, Mr. Grenell has access to any secrets he may want to review. And he has requested access to information from the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The revelations about last week’s briefing reignited fears about Russia’s continuing efforts to interfere in the American election, including in the Democratic primary races.
During the briefing, which was supposed to focus on coordination between government agencies to fight election interference, not the acts themselves, Republicans challenged the intelligence agencies’ conclusion that the Russians continue to favor Mr. Trump. Some officials said the briefing was not meant to be controversial and that intelligence officials intended to simply reiterate what they have been telling Congress for months. Intelligence officials have already documented instances of the Kremlin trying to influence American politics, namely attempts by Russian military intelligence officers to hack into the Ukrainian energy company that once employed the son of former Vice President Joseph Biden Jr. Officials want to know whether the breach was an effort to help Mr. Trump, whose efforts to persuade Ukraine to announce investigations into Mr. Biden helped prompt his impeachment. And during the congressional impeachment hearings, Fiona Hill, a former senior White House official who worked on Russia issues, warned about Moscow’s continued efforts to spread disinformation. Mr. Trump himself wrote in a January letter accompanying the administration’s national counterintelligence strategy that “Russia remains a significant intelligence threat to United States interests — employing aggressive acts to instigate and exacerbate tensions and instability in the United States, including interfering with the security of our elections.” Intelligence officials were scheduled to brief the full House and Senate on election security on March 10, arrangements that were made weeks ago, accounting to congressional aides. How long Mr. Grenell will be able to stay as the acting director is an open question. For him to remain past March 11 — a limit imposed by federal law — Mr. Trump must formally nominate someone else for the director of national intelligence post.
Mr. Trump told reporters late Thursday that he was considering Representative Doug Collins of Georgia, the top Republican on the intelligence committee, but Mr. Collins took himself out of the running the next morning.
Mr. Collins, who helped lead the president’s impeachment defense, had received no advance notice that he was under consideration for the top intelligence post. He saw no reason to entertain a job he did not want, especially as he wages a special election battle for a Senate seat in his home state of Georgia. “I know the problems in our intelligence community, but this is not a job that interests me at this time,” Mr. Collins said on Fox Business. ‘It’s not one that I would accept because I’m running a Senate race.” People close to Mr. Collins have speculated that the president might have been trying to entice Mr. Collins out of that election to tamp down a messy intraparty fight that could cost Republicans control of the seat. Party leaders have converged around Senator Kelly Loeffler since Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia appointed her to fill the state’s vacant Senate seat late last year and have made no secret of their disdain for Mr. Collins’s refusal to exit the race. A nomination to a cabinet-level position would have required Mr. Collins to drop out of the race. But given his lack of intelligence experience and political track record, there was little likelihood the Senate would have confirmed him to the post. With Mr. Collins off the table, Mr. Trump will need another potential nominee. The White House is considering Pete Hoekstra, the former Republican congressman who is now the American ambassador to the Netherlands, according to three officials. Whether the Senate would be willing to formally consider Mr. Hoekstra is unclear. But if Mr. Trump were to send a nomination to the Senate it would, under federal law, allow Mr. Grenell to serve for at least another six months. David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington, and Maggie Haberman from New York. | ||
| Trump’s New Spy Chief Used to Work for a Foreign Politician the U.S. Accused of Corruption - ProPublica | ||
Trump’s New Spy Chief Used to Work for a Foreign Politician the U.S. Accused of Corruption ProPublica | ||
| Trump’s New Spy Chief Used to Work for a Foreign Politician the U.S. Accused of Corruption | ||
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
President Donald Trump’s new acting intelligence director, Richard Grenell, used to do consulting work on behalf of an Eastern European oligarch who is now a fugitive and was recently barred from entering the U.S. under anti-corruption sanctions imposed last month by the State Department.In 2016, Grenell wrote several articles defending the oligarch, a Moldovan politician named Vladimir Plahotniuc, but did not disclose that he was being paid, according to records and interviews. Grenell also did not register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which generally requires people to disclose work in the U.S. on behalf of foreign politicians. FARA is the same law that Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and former deputy campaign manager Rick Gates were convicted of violating. (Manafort went to trial. Gates pleaded guilty.) It’s not clear whether the articles were directly part of Grenell’s paid consulting work for Plahotniuc. Unpaid work could still require disclosures under FARA if it was directed by or primarily benefited a foreign politician, according to Matthew Sanderson, a lawyer at Caplin & Drysdale who advises people on complying with FARA. FARA contains several exemptions, such as for lawyers and businesses, Sanderson said, but none appear to apply to Grenell’s op-eds about Plahotniuc. “There is real reason to believe that Mr. Grenell should have registered here,” Sanderson said after ProPublica described the circumstances to him. “This is exactly the type of circumstances I’d expect the Department of Justice to investigate further.” Undisclosed work for a foreign politician would ordinarily pose a problem for anyone applying for a security clearance or a job in a U.S. intelligence agency because it could make the person susceptible to foreign influence or blackmail, according to the official policy from the office that Trump tapped Grenell to lead. The policy specifies that among the “conditions that could raise a security concern and may be disqualifying” are:
McClanahan said it’s unclear how Grenell could have already gotten a clearance as an ambassador. The House Oversight Committee is investigating whether the Trump administration has overruled career officials in granting security clearances to political appointees. As Trump’s pick for acting director of national intelligence, Grenell will have access to the country’s most sensitive secrets. Grenell isn’t subject to Senate confirmation because Trump appointed him on a temporary basis. The White House, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Grenell, who is also continuing in his current posts as ambassador to Germany and special envoy for negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia, has gained Trump’s favor with his unwavering loyalty and combative tweets. (In one instance, he attacked ProPublica in response to reporting that Vice President Mike Pence’s office had intervened in foreign aid decisions.) He raised hackles in Berlin by injecting himself into the country’s domestic politics, a departure from usual diplomatic protocol. Grenell does not have prior experience in intelligence. He was the U.S. spokesman at the United Nations during the George W. Bush administration. In between his turns in government, Grenell had a public affairs consulting firm called Capitol Media Partners. One of the firm’s clients, according to the financial disclosure that Grenell filed when he became an ambassador, was Arthur J. Finkelstein, the late Republican political consultant whose international clients included Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary. Grenell’s financial disclosure indicates that he received more than $5,000 from Finkelstein’s firm but does not specify how much. According to a person familiar with the relationship, Grenell worked for Finkelstein as a media consultant for clients in Eastern Europe. That person and another individual said the client in Moldova was Plahotniuc, the country’s richest man and then a top official in its ruling political party. In August 2016, Grenell published op-eds in the right-leaning Washington Examiner and Washington Times defending Plahotniuc and attacking his enemies as serving Russian interests. Plahotniuc and his allies at the time were fending off suspicions of their involvement in a $1 billion bank fraud in Moldova. “Blaming the ruling party and its leadership has its political benefits for Russia,” Grenell wrote in the Examiner article. “Plahotniuc has been around Moldovan politics, business and civic life for decades and has turned out to be an easy target.” This narrative aligned with Plahotniuc’s efforts to present himself as pro-Western in Washington and European capitals, according to lobbying disclosure records. “Certainly there was an effort by him to engage U.S. officials at the time, that despite all this corruption he was the guy most likely to keep Russia at bay and therefore you should accept him,” said Jonathan Katz, who oversaw U.S. aid programs for Moldova at the time. “It didn’t match anything he was doing internally in the country,” Katz said, because Plahotniuc didn’t advance U.S. interests such as promoting democratic institutions and the rule of law.
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“The reality is he’s pro-himself and nothing more,” Valeriu Pașa, who leads a prominent civil society group in Moldova called WatchDog.MD, said of Plahotniuc. “He was playing both sides for 15 years at least.” Plahotniuc lost power in 2019 and fled Moldova. His current whereabouts are unknown. Last month, the State Department endorsed the corruption allegations against him, banning him and his family from entering the U.S. “In his official capacity, Plahotniuc was involved in corrupt acts that undermined the rule of law and severely compromised the independence of democratic institutions in Moldova,” the State Department said in its announcement. “Today’s action sends a strong signal the United States does not tolerate corruption and stands with the people of Moldova in their fight against it.”  | ||
| Trump’s New Spy Chief Labored For A Overseas Politician The U.S. Accused of Corruption | ||
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of energy. Signal as much as obtain our biggest stories as quickly as they’re revealed.
President Donald Trump’s new performing intelligence director, Richard Grenell, used to do consulting work on behalf of an Jap European oligarch who’s now a fugitive and was just lately barred from getting into the U.S. beneath anti-corruption sanctions imposed final month by the State Division.
In 2016, Grenell wrote several articles defending the oligarch, a Moldovan politician named Vladimir Plahotniuc, however didn’t disclose that he was being paid, in line with information and interviews. Grenell additionally didn’t register beneath the Overseas Brokers Registration Act, which usually requires individuals to reveal work within the U.S. on behalf of international politicians.
FARA is similar legislation that Trump’s former marketing campaign supervisor Paul Manafort and former deputy marketing campaign supervisor Rick Gates have been convicted of violating. (Manafort went to trial. Gates pleaded responsible.)
It’s not clear whether or not the articles have been instantly a part of Grenell’s paid consulting work for Plahotniuc. Unpaid work may nonetheless require disclosures beneath FARA if it was directed by or primarily benefited a international politician, in line with Matthew Sanderson, a lawyer at Caplin & Drysdale who advises individuals on complying with FARA. FARA accommodates a number of exemptions, similar to for attorneys and companies, Sanderson mentioned, however none seem to use to Grenell’s op-eds about Plahotniuc.
“There may be actual purpose to consider that Mr. Grenell ought to have registered right here,” Sanderson mentioned after ProPublica described the circumstances to him. “That is precisely the kind of circumstances I’d anticipate the Division of Justice to analyze additional.”
Undisclosed work for a international politician would ordinarily pose an issue for anybody making use of for a safety clearance or a job in a U.S. intelligence company as a result of it may make the particular person vulnerable to international affect or blackmail, in line with the official policy from the workplace that Trump tapped Grenell to guide.
The coverage specifies that among the many “situations that might increase a safety concern and could also be disqualifying” are:
“That’s very easy, he mustn’t have a clearance,” mentioned Kel McClanahan, a Washington-area lawyer specializing in safety clearances. “If he have been one among my purchasers and only a regular [federal employee], he would nearly assuredly not have a clearance.”
McClanahan mentioned it’s unclear how Grenell may have already gotten a clearance as an envoy. The House Oversight Committee is investigating whether or not the Trump administration has overruled profession officers in granting safety clearances to political appointees.
As Trump’s decide for performing director of nationwide intelligence, Grenell can have entry to the nation’s most delicate secrets and techniques. Grenell isn’t topic to Senate affirmation as a result of Trump appointed him on a temporary basis.
The White Home, the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence and the State Division didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.
Grenell, who can be persevering with in his present posts as ambassador to Germany and particular envoy for negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia, has gained Trump’s favor along with his unwavering loyalty and combative tweets. (In a single occasion, he attacked ProPublica in response to reporting that Vice President Mike Pence’s workplace had intervened in international help selections.) He raised hackles in Berlin by injecting himself into the nation’s home politics, a departure from standard diplomatic protocol.
Grenell doesn’t have prior expertise in intelligence. He was the U.S. spokesman on the United Nations throughout the George W. Bush administration.
In between his turns in authorities, Grenell had a public affairs consulting agency referred to as Capitol Media Companions. One of many agency’s purchasers, in line with the financial disclosure that Grenell filed when he grew to become an envoy, was Arthur J. Finkelstein, the late Republican political advisor whose worldwide purchasers included Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary. Grenell’s monetary disclosure signifies that he obtained greater than $5,000 from Finkelstein’s agency however doesn’t specify how a lot.
In line with an individual aware of the connection, Grenell labored for Finkelstein as a media advisor for purchasers in Jap Europe. That particular person and one other particular person mentioned the consumer in Moldova was Plahotniuc, the nation’s richest man after which a high official in its ruling political occasion.
In August 2016, Grenell revealed op-eds within the right-leaning Washington Examiner and Washington Times defending Plahotniuc and attacking his enemies as serving Russian pursuits. Plahotniuc and his allies on the time have been warding off suspicions of their involvement in a $1 billion financial institution fraud in Moldova. “Blaming the ruling occasion and its management has its political advantages for Russia,” Grenell wrote within the Examiner article. “Plahotniuc has been round Moldovan politics, enterprise and civic life for many years and has turned out to be a simple goal.”
This narrative aligned with Plahotniuc’s efforts to current himself as pro-Western in Washington and European capitals, in line with lobbying disclosure information. “Definitely there was an effort by him to have interaction U.S. officers on the time, that regardless of all this corruption he was the man most probably to maintain Russia at bay and due to this fact you must settle for him,” mentioned Jonathan Katz, who oversaw U.S. help packages for Moldova on the time. “It didn’t match something he was doing internally within the nation,” Katz mentioned, as a result of Plahotniuc didn’t advance U.S. pursuits similar to selling democratic establishments and the rule of legislation.
Grenell was additionally quoted in an October 2016 article within the Houston Chronicle criticizing a resolution proposed by Rep. Randy Weber, R-Texas, that accused Plahotniuc and his allies of corruption. “He’s making an attempt to assault the one pro-European group in Moldova,” Grenell informed the Chronicle.
“The truth is he’s pro-himself and nothing extra,” Valeriu Pașa, who leads a outstanding civil society group in Moldova referred to as WatchDog.MD, mentioned of Plahotniuc. “He was taking part in each side for 15 years a minimum of.”
Plahotniuc misplaced energy in 2019 and fled Moldova. His present whereabouts are unknown. Final month, the State Division endorsed the corruption allegations towards him, banning him and his household from getting into the U.S.
“In his official capability, Plahotniuc was concerned in corrupt acts that undermined the rule of legislation and severely compromised the independence of democratic establishments in Moldova,” the State Division mentioned in its announcement. “At present’s motion sends a powerful sign the US doesn’t tolerate corruption and stands with the individuals of Moldova of their struggle towards it.”
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| 1:19 PM 2/21/2020 - Russians try to provoke and predict the civil war in America: The roots of these errors and lack of the conceptual understanding of America are in the deep crisis of the Humanitarian Sciences, or the Humanities in Russia | ||
Russians try to provoke and predict the civil war in America
1:19 PM 2/21/2020 - Post Link: | https://fbinewsreview.blogspot.com/2020/02/119-pm-2212020-russians-try-to-provoke.html | ________________________________________________________________________________  M.N.: The aim of the Russian Intelligence Services is to incite, provoke, facilitate, and enable the deep, fractious social divisions, conflicts, and according to their crazy dream, the Civil War in US. This is their serious conceptual thinking, inherited from the KGB mentality, and just as uninformed, uneducated, and primitive. These theorists do not know and do not understand America. They are engaged in a sick, delusional wishful thinking. However, the practical "Special Operations", carried out by the Russian Intelligence Services, and their semi-retired satellites, are very much in line with these concepts, and this is what we now see in the real life and in the real time.   _______________________________
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21/02/20 05:57 from TWEETS BY MIKENOV from mikenova (1 sites) President Trump: "Comey lied, McCabe lied, Lisa Page lied, her lover Strzok, Peter Strzok lied. You don't know who these people are? Just trust me, they all lied." pic.twitter.com/jXNZ6T8p8C Posted by thehill on Thursday, February 20th, ...
» mikenov on Twitter: RT @washingtonpost: Sanders implies Russia, not his supporters, may be to blame for online vitriol. Experts aren’t so sure. https://t.co/vo…
21/02/20 05:56 from TWEETS BY MIKENOV from mikenova (1 sites) Sanders implies Russia, not his supporters, may be to blame for online vitriol. Experts aren’t so sure. wapo.st/37NLKRQ Posted by washingtonpost on Thursday, February 20th, 2020 10:17pm Retweeted by mikenov on Friday, February 21st, 2020...
» mikenov on Twitter: RT @realDonaldTrump: Wow, thank you — on my way!! twitter.com/teamtrump/stat…
21/02/20 05:56 from TWEETS BY MIKENOV from mikenova (1 sites) Wow, thank you — on my way!! twitter.com/teamtrump/stat… Look at the line forming for the @realDonaldTrump rally in Colorado Springs tonight! HUGE! #TrumpRallyColoradoSprings pic.twitter.com/bzc6uBnBXo Posted by TeamTrump on Thursday, Fe... | ||
| 2016 again? Trump rejects intel reports of Russian meddling » Albuquerque Journal | ||
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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump on Friday minimized new warnings from U.S. intelligence experts that Russia is interfering in this year’s election campaign, and revived old grievances in claiming that Democrats are determined to undermine the legitimacy of his presidency. Intelligence officials told lawmakers in a classified briefing last week that Russia is meddling with the hope of getting Trump reelected, according to officials familiar with the briefing. But Trump pushed back against the notion that Russia is working again to help him win and accused Democrats of trying to politically damage him. “Another misinformation campaign is being launched by Democrats in Congress saying that Russia prefers me to any of the Do Nothing Democrat candidates who still have been unable to, after two weeks, count their votes in Iowa. Hoax number 7!” Trump tweeted. ................................................................ The fresh intelligence warnings about Russian interference came in what has been a tumultuous stretch for the intelligence community. A day after the Feb. 13 briefing to the House Intelligence Committee, Trump berated the acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire in a meeting at the White House. Then this week, Trump abruptly announced that Maguire would be replaced by Richard Grenell, a Trump loyalist who also will hold the job in an acting capacity. Trump tweeted Friday that he was considering four candidates to serve as permanent intel director and expected to make a decision within the next few weeks. He told reporters Thursday evening that Rep. Doug Collins of Georgia was among those he’s considering. But Collins, who is vying for one of Georgia’s Senate seats, said Friday he’s not interested in the job overseeing the nation’s 17 spy agencies. The installation of Grenell, even in a temporary role, has raised questions among critics about whether Trump is more interested in having a loyalist instead of someone steeped in the complicated inner workings of international intelligence. Grenell has a background that is primarily in politics and media affairs. Most recently, he’s been serving as Trump’s chief envoy to Germany. The Democratic chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, dismissed Grenell as someone who, “by all accounts, rose to prominence in the Trump administration because of his personal devotion to Donald Trump and penchant for trolling the President’s perceived enemies on Twitter.” From the start of his presidency three years ago, Trump has been dogged by insecurity over his loss of the popular vote in the general election and a persistent frustration that the legitimacy of his presidency is being challenged by Democrats and the media, aides and associates say. He’s also aggressively played down U.S. findings that Russia interfered in the 2016 election. ................................................................ In addition to those findings by the major intelligence agencies, a nearly two-year investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller concluded there was a sophisticated, Kremlin-led operation to sow division in the U.S. and upend the 2016 election by using cyberattacks and social media as weapons. Moscow has denied any meddling. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that the newest allegations are “paranoid reports that, unfortunately, there will be more and more of as we get closer to the elections (in the U.S.). Of course, they have nothing to do with the truth.” But in the U.S., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tweeted that, “American voters should decide American elections — not Vladimir Putin.” She added that all members of Congress “should condemn the President’s reported efforts to dismiss threats to the integrity of our democracy & to politicize our intel community.” Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, tweeted: “We count on the intelligence community to inform Congress of any threat of foreign interference in our elections. If reports are true and the President is interfering with that, he is again jeopardizing our efforts to stop foreign meddling. Exactly as we warned he would do.” Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, said of Trump and the new warnings: “Putin’s Puppet is at it again, taking Russian help for himself.” “He knows he can’t win without it. And we can’t let it happen,” she said on Twitter. The U.S. intelligence agencies say Russia interfered in the 2016 election through social media campaigns and by stealing and distributing emails from Democratic accounts. They say Russia was trying to boost Trump’s campaign and add chaos to the American political process. Mueller concluded separately that Russian interference was “sweeping and systematic,” but he did not find a criminal conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign. ................................................................ Republican lawmakers who were in last week’s briefing by the director of national intelligence’s chief election official, Shelby Pierson, pushed back by saying Trump has been tough on Russia, according to one of the officials describing the meeting. While Trump has imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia, he also has spoken warmly of Putin and withdrawn troops from areas including Syria, where Moscow could fill the vacuum. He delayed military aid last year to Ukraine, a Russian adversary — a decision that was at the core of his impeachment proceedings. The tumult caused by the sudden ouster of Maguire adds a new chapter to Trump’s fraught relationship with the intelligence community. He has derided intelligence officials as part of a “deep state” of entrenched bureaucrats who seek to undermine his agenda. In addition to feuding over the Russian interference, he’s claimed that members of the intelligence community unfairly accused him of unlawfully pressuring Ukraine’s president to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, another central element of the impeachment drama. At times, Trump has mocked the intelligence community, which he sees as obsessed with Russia. During a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of an international summit in Japan last year, Trump jokingly turned to Putin and playfully told him, “Don’t meddle in the election, President.” Pierson told NPR in an interview that aired last month that the Russians “are already engaging in influence operations relative to candidates going into 2020. But we do not have evidence at this time that our adversaries are directly looking at interfering with vote counts or the vote tallies.” Pierson, appointed in July 2019 by then-Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, works with intelligence agencies including the CIA, the FBI, the National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security to identify anyone seeking to interfere with U.S. elections. Pierson said it’s not just a Russia problem. “We’re still also concerned about China, Iran, non-state actors, hacktivists and frankly — certainly for DHS and FBI – even Americans that might be looking to undermine confidence in the elections.” At an open hearing this month, FBI Director Christopher Wray told the House Judiciary Committee that Russia was engaged in “information warfare” heading into the November election, but that law enforcement had not seen efforts to target America’s infrastructure. He said Russia is relying on a covert social media campaign to divide the American public. ___ Associated Press writers Eric Tucker and Michael Balsamo in Washington, Zeke Miller in Las Vegas and Daria Litvinova in Moscow contributed to this report. | ||
| "trump russian candidate" - Google News: Trump, Russia issue denials as new meddling charges hit US election | - Macau Business | ||
Trump, Russia issue denials as new meddling charges hit US election | Macau Business | ||
| Trump, Russia issue denials as new meddling charges hit US election | | ||
Donald Trump and Russia on Friday both angrily dismissed US intelligence’s account that Moscow is meddling in this year’s election as Democrats accused the president of betraying democracy.
US intelligence chief Joseph Maguire, whom Trump replaced on Wednesday with a loyal partisan lacking direct experience in the field, warned lawmakers of Russian interference in a classified briefing last week. The US intelligence community publicly concluded that Russia intervened in 2016, including by manipulating social media, but Maguire reportedly revealed that Moscow wanted Trump to be re-elected and was meddling in the Democratic Party’s primaries. Trump, who has repeatedly shown irritation at assertions that Russia helped him win the White House, denounced the latest assertions as the work of the rival party. “Another misinformation campaign is being launched by Democrats in Congress saying that Russia prefers me to any of the Do Nothing Democrat candidates who still have been unable to, after two weeks, count their votes in Iowa,” Trump tweeted, referring to the debacle in releasing results from the Democrats’ first contest. “Hoax number 7!” In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the allegations were “like the usual paranoid announcements, which unfortunately will multiply as we get closer to the election.” “Of course, they have nothing to do with the truth,” he said. President Vladimir Putin, however, acknowledged when he met Trump in July 2018 that he supported the populist billionaire’s campaign, seeing him as friendlier to Moscow than rival Hillary Clinton. An extensive report by former FBI chief Robert Mueller found that Russia intervened to back Trump but did not conclude that the Trump campaign conspired with Moscow. Trump was later impeached in a separate scandal over holding back military aid to Ukraine, which is fighting Russian-backed separatists, to pressure the Kiev government to dig up dirt on a Democratic candidate. The Senate, led by Trump’s Republican Party, acquitted him on February 6, after which the president swiftly removed officials who provided evidence against him. – National security crisis –Former CIA director John Brennan, who served under presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, said the United States had entered “a full-blown national security crisis.”“By trying to prevent the flow of intelligence to Congress, Trump is abetting a Russian covert operation to keep him in office for Moscow’s interests, not America’s,” he wrote on Twitter. Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren said the 2020 election revelations showed the “enormous” challenge. “It should worry, all of us, that we now live in an America where one political party seems to think that foreign interference helps them in an election,” she said at a CNN forum with voters in Nevada. Senator Chris Van Hollen denounced both Trump’s appointment of a “novice” new intelligence chief and the Senate’s blocking of election reform bills backed by Democrats. “Our intel agencies say Putin is interfering in our election to help Trump,” he wrote on Twitter. “What’s the definition of treason?” Representative Eric Swalwell, who serves on the House intelligence committee, tweeted simply: “Agent for Russia.” – Trump ally installed as director –Few Republican lawmakers immediately spoke out, although Trump’s allies in the past have questioned why Russia would favor him.While Trump has spoken with admiration about Putin, his administration, staffed with more traditionally Russia-skeptic Republicans, has provided military aid to Ukraine and pushed through sanctions that hit Moscow. The New York Times, quoting anonymous sources, reported that Trump lashed out not at the purported Russian interference but at Maguire for allowing his staff to brief lawmakers — particularly Adam Schiff, the House intelligence chief who also led the impeachment drive. While Maguire would have been obliged to leave next month as he was serving in acting capacity, Trump on Wednesday replaced him with Richard Grenell, the outspoken US ambassador to Germany. Grenell was an unusual choice for the largely behind-the-scenes job as he has no direct intelligence experience and has made waves by irritating German leaders with his prolific online commentary. A longtime media commentator, Grenell has played down Russian interference in 2016, saying that Moscow routinely conducts such operations. While evidence for the latest meddling assertions is classified, Democratic presidential frontrunner Bernie Sanders alleged at a debate Wednesday that Russia could be behind belligerent online remarks by his professed supporters that have drawn condemnation from other candidates. by Shaun Tandon | ||
| trump and risks of civil war in us - Google Search | ||
Trump tweet, political divisions fuel rising discourse about new ...
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Oct 29, 2019 - Trump tweet, political divisions fuel rising discourse about new U.S. civil war. Julia Harte. 6 Min Read. MIDDLETOWN, Va. (Reuters) - Sporting ...
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Dec 5, 2019 - Trump gloweringly presides over an American cultural war that is ... 59th presidential election and the real risk of its second “Cival” War.
BU Historian Answers: Are We Headed for Another Civil War ...
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BU Today: Democrats are demanding documents from President Trump, his family, ... Also for the idea of a Second American Civil War there is a lot of anger on ...
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Oct 5, 2019 - Trump returned to the topic of the Civil War yet again last weekend, ... that American politics would continue to grapple with the implications of ...
Missing:
Can you imagine a worse reason to start a civil war? - The Week
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Oct 3, 2019 - Of all the reasons to start a civil war, preserving slavery is the worst. ... Rudy Giuliani warned that impeaching Trump would risk "domestic ... You can applaud Trump's speeches or commit treason against the United States.
Armed Militias Are Taking Trump's Civil War Tweets Seriously ...
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Oct 2, 2019 - Armed Militias Are Taking Trump's Civil War Tweets Seriously ... In November 2018, after Trump pledged to send up to 15,000 U.S. troops to ... president has invoked the idea of civil war, there is a risk that armed groups will ...
Welcome to the Fractured States of America - CNN.com
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Some on the right are even concerned we are on the verge of a new Civil War. ... States, America's first president, George Washington, warned of the dangers of ...
This Impeachment Is Different—and More Dangerous - Politico
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Dec 7, 2019 - Americans haven't been this siloed since the Civil War. ... deadline of Christmas to vote on the impeachment of President Donald Trump, ... and the risk of a truly destabilizing event here—a fractured America because of siloed ...
Americans Demand a Rethinking of the 'Forever War' - The ...
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Feb 2, 2020 - The United States must stop its involvement in endless wars, say bipartisan critics of both President Trump's actions and Washington policymakers. ... actions of American troops ignite hostility and can sometimes heighten risks rather ... to end American military involvement in Yemen's devastating civil war.
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Jul 30, 2019 - President Donald Trump, accompanied by Agriculture Secretary Sonny ... Today, more than 150 years after the end of the Civil War, America is again ... Janna Malamud Smith: An America Divided Is An America At Risk.
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Dec 26, 2019 - Friends and foes alike no longer know where the United States stands. ... In Libya
Moderate Republicans Can Save America - The Atlantic
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In recent years, however, beginning before the election of Donald Trump and accelerating ... We should be careful about overstating the dangers. ... By the outbreak of the Civil War, the foreign-born would form 19 percent of the population of ...
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Nov 14, 2019 - What America's Allies Really Think About Trump's Syria Decision ... It will depend on whether the risks can be curtailed. ... kicked Iran out of the country, and helped broker a political solution to the civil war, though the official ...
America is deeply divided—and some say another civil war is ...
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Dec 5, 2019 - Donald Trump's final innings would be less daunting if the rule of law hadn't ... America is deeply divided—and some say another civil war is a possibility ... 59th presidential election and the real risk of its second “Cival” War.
What Trump Doesn't Get About His Own 'Civil War' - Bloomberg
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Sep 30, 2019 - President Donald Trump warns that removing him from office would “cause a Civil War-like fracture in this Nation from which our Country will ...
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Jan 6, 2020 - The U.S. political year will begin with 100 senators deciding the fate of Donald Trump's presidency and end with 150 million voters or more ...
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Oct 19, 2018 - Modern America is not in danger of falling into a second Civil War, ... The election of President Trump did not start this pattern of polarization.
GOP lawmaker invokes possibility of 'civil war' after House ...
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Oct 31, 2019 - GOP lawmaker invokes possibility of 'civil war' after House votes on Trump impeachment procedures. By Aris Folley 11,297 Tweet Share More.
Everyone knows the 2020 election will be divisive. But will it ...
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Sep 5, 2019 - A Trump supporter screams as he passes anti-Trump protesters outside of a ... And finally, the United States lacks two significant risk factors for the ... and a recent history of civil wars, coups d'état or organized militia violence.
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| History as a giant data set: how analysing the past could help save the future | Technology | ||
In its first issue of 2010, the scientific journal Nature looked forward to a dazzling decade of progress. By 2020, experimental devices connected to the internet would deduce our search queries by directly monitoring our brain signals. Crops would exist that doubled their biomass in three hours. Humanity would be well on the way to ending its dependency on fossil fuels.
A few weeks later, a letter in the same journal cast a shadow over this bright future. It warned that all these advances could be derailed by mounting political instability, which was due to peak in the US and western Europe around 2020. Human societies go through predictable periods of growth, the letter explained, during which the population increases and prosperity rises. Then come equally predictable periods of decline. These “secular cycles” last two or three centuries and culminate in widespread unrest – from worker uprisings to revolution. In recent decades, the letter went on, a number of worrying social indicators – such as wealth inequality and public debt – had started to climb in western nations, indicating that these societies were approaching a period of upheaval. The letter-writer would go on to predict that the turmoil in the US in 2020 would be less severe than the American civil war, but worse than the violence of the late 1960s and early 70s, when the murder rate spiked, civil rights and anti-Vietnam war protests intensified and domestic terrorists carried out thousands of bombings across the country. The author of this stark warning was not a historian, but a biologist. For the first few decades of his career, Peter Turchin had used sophisticated maths to show how the interactions of predators and prey produce oscillations in animal populations in the wild. He had published in the journals Nature and Science and become respected in his field, but by the late 1990s he had answered all the ecological questions that interested him. He found himself drawn to history instead: could the rise and fall of human societies also be captured by a handful of variables and some differential equations? Turchin set out to determine whether history, like physics, follows certain laws. In 2003, he published a book called Historical Dynamics, in which he discerned secular cycles in France and Russia from their origins to the end of the 18th century. That same year, he founded a new field of academic study, called cliodynamics, which seeks to discover the underlying reasons for these historical patterns, and to model them using mathematics, the way one might model changes to the planet’s climate. Seven years later, he started the field’s first official journal and co-founded a database of historical and archaeological information, which now contains data on more than 450 historical societies. The database can be used to compare societies across large stretches of time and space, as well as to make predictions about coming political instability. In 2017, Turchin founded a working group of historians, semioticians, physicists and others to help anticipate the future of human societies based on historical evidence. Turchin’s approach to history, which uses software to find patterns in massive amounts of historical data, has only become possible recently, thanks to the growth in cheap computing power and the development of large historical datasets. This “big data” approach is now becoming increasingly popular in historical disciplines. Tim Kohler, an archaeologist at Washington State University, believes we are living through “the glory days” of his field, because scholars can pool their research findings with unprecedented ease and extract real knowledge from them. In the future, Turchin believes, historical theories will be tested against large databases, and the ones that do not fit – many of them long-cherished – will be discarded. Our understanding of the past will converge on something approaching an objective truth. To some, the prediction that Turchin made in Nature in 2010 now seems remarkably prescient. Barring any last-minute surprises, the search engine that decodes your brainwaves won’t exist by 2020. Nor will crops that double their biomass in three hours, or an energy budget that is mostly supplied by renewables. But an imminent upheaval in the political order of the US or UK seems increasingly plausible. The Fragile States Index, calculated by the US non-profit The Fund for Peace, reveals a worsening trend toward instability in those two countries, in contrast to steady improvement in much of the rest of the world. “We are in an age of considerable turbulence, matched only by the great age of Atlantic revolutions,” says George Lawson, who studies political conflict at the London School of Economics, referring to the period from the 1770s to the 1870s, when violent uprisings overthrew monarchies from France to the New World. Turchin sees his prediction for 2020 not just as a test of one controversial theory. It could also be a taste of things to come: a world in which scholars generate the equivalent of extreme weather warnings for the social and political conditions of the future – along with advice on how to survive them. For most academics who study the past, explaining why something happened once is very different from predicting how and when it will happen again. “We cannot produce laws,” says Timur Kuran, an economist and political scientist at Duke University. It is no accident that this view is being challenged by mathematicians and biologists such as Turchin. What their disciplines have in common is the science of complexity, which teaches that a system composed of even just a few moving parts can produce complex patterns of behaviour because of the different ways in which those parts interact. The sun, the Earth’s surface and the Earth’s atmosphere interact to produce weather, for example. Those interactions can be captured mathematically, in sets of equations, or laws, that predict the system’s behaviour under different conditions. This is essentially what the weather forecast does. Complexity science had its origins in physics, in the study of the behaviour of elementary particles, but over the course of the past century it slowly spread to other disciplines. As late as the 1950s, few cell biologists would have conceded that cell division could be described mathematically; they assumed it was random. Now they take that fact for granted, and their mathematical models of cell division have led to better cancer treatments. In ecology, too, it is accepted that patterns exist in nature that can be described mathematically. Lemmings do not commit mass suicide, as Walt Disney would have had us believe, but they do go through predictable four-year boom-and-bust cycles driven by their interactions with predators, and possibly also with their own food supply. In 2008, the Nobel-prize winning physicist Murray Gell-Mann declared it was only a matter of time before laws of history would be found, too. It would not happen, however, until all those who study the past – historians, demographers, economists and others – realised that working in their specialist siloes, while necessary, was not sufficient. “We have neglected the crucial supplementary discipline of taking a crude look at the whole,” said Gell-Mann. Many historians consider this mathematical approach to history to be problematic. They tend to believe that lessons can be drawn from the past, but only in a very limited way – the history of the Troubles in Northern Ireland might shed light on current tensions there, for example. These days, few historians search for general laws that apply across centuries and societies, or that can be used to predict the future in any meaningful way. That was the goal of the scientific historians of the 19th century, many of whom were inspired by social Darwinism, and it is an approach now regarded as deeply flawed, as well as fatally connected to narratives of empire. “We as a community of modern social scientists have invested 60 years of concerted effort in stripping away the racism and sexism and general Eurocentrism inclusive in those narratives,” says historian Jo Guldi of the Southern Methodist University in Texas, adding that there is a fear among historians that mathematical approaches will drag them backwards. There is also the old mistrust between the sciences and the humanities. When Guldi and Harvard historian David Armitage called for their discipline to embrace big data and take a longer view of the past, in their 2014 book The History Manifesto, they were slammed in the leading US journal in their field, The American Historical Review. “It was probably one of the bloodiest attacks of the last 30 years,” says Guldi. There is a visceral feeling, not only among historians but also among many ordinary people, that humans cannot be reduced to data points and equations. How can an equation predict a Joan of Arc, or an Oliver Cromwell? “History is not a science,” says Diarmaid MacCulloch, a historian at the University of Oxford, summing up that view. “At the bottom of it is human behaviour, and that is terrifyingly unpredictable.” “This argument gets it exactly wrong,” argues Turchin, who since the early 1990s has been a professor in the department of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut, and is now also affiliated with the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna. “It is because social systems are so complex that we need mathematical models.” Importantly, the resulting laws are probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning that they accommodate the element of chance. But this does not mean they are hollow: if a weather forecast tells you there is an 80% chance of rain, you pack your umbrella. Peter J Richerson, a leading scholar of cultural evolution at the University of California in Davis, says that historical patterns such as secular cycles do exist, and that Turchin has “the only sensible causal account” of them. (It is also, Richeson points out, the only such account for now; the field is young, and different theories may follow.) Other historians believe that Turchin’s work – which incorporates not just history and maths, but also the research of economists, other social scientists, and environmental scientists – provides a much-needed corrective to decades of specialisation within these disciplines. “We in historical and social scientific fields desperately need this kind of overarching, cooperative, comparative effort,” wrote Gary Feinman, an archaeologist at the Field Museum of Natural History in Chicago, after a 2016 workshop with Turchin and his colleagues. Still, others are excited about the new insights that might emerge from studying human societies in the same way as complex biological systems. Several Silicon Valley executives have also taken a keen interest in Turchin’s forecasting. “They get it,” Turchin says. “But then they have two questions. How can they make money out of the situation? And when should they buy their plot in New Zealand?” When Turchin began looking for mathematical descriptions of history in the late 1990s, he found that another scholar had laid much of the groundwork for him, two decades earlier. Jack Goldstone was a mathematician-turned-historian who, as a Harvard student, once used maths to codify Alexis de Tocqueville’s ideas about democracy. “I tried to produce De Tocqueville’s argument as a set of equations,” he told me recently. “I did not get a good grade.” Goldstone went on to become the first person to apply complexity science to human history, and to conclude that political instability was cyclical. The result was a mathematical description of revolution – one half of a model of societal change that Turchin has gone on to complete. At the time Goldstone began his research, in the mid-70s, the prevailing view of revolution was best understood as a form of class conflict. But Goldstone made two observations that did not fit that view. First, individuals from the same classes, or even the same families, often ended up fighting on opposite sides. And second, revolutions had clustered in certain periods of history – the 14th and 17th centuries, the late 18th-to-early 19th centuries – but there was no obvious reason why class tensions should have boiled over in those periods and not in others. He suspected there were deeper forces at work, and he wanted to know what they were. Serendipitously, and because he was short of cash, Goldstone ended up working as a teaching assistant for a Harvard demographer named George Masnick, who showed him the deep social, political and economic impact of the baby boom in the US, following the second world war. That youth bulge was accompanied by new tensions in society, including pressure on the labour market and a hunger for radical ideologies. Goldstone wondered if booms such as this might have contributed to other societies’ periods of upheaval, and in the 80s he began combing the archives for information on population growth in the decades prior to European revolutions. Only a few years earlier, the level of detail he needed would not have been available, but the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure in the UK, along with similar groups across Europe, had begun painstakingly reconstructing population histories based on sources such as parish records. Goldstone was also encouraged by the publication in 1978 of Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones’s Atlas of World Population History, in which they highlighted an “astonishing synchronicity” in population booms and busts across Eurasia over millennia. A few months into his number-crunching, he had his eureka moment: “It was astounding: there really was a three-generation surge in population growth before every major revolution or rebellion in history.” In the 18th century, the Rev Thomas Malthus argued that a population eventually outgrows its resources, imploding in a toxic cloud of conflict and disease until, reduced once again to manageable proportions, it enters a new phase of growth. The theory Goldstone went on to construct borrowed from Malthus, but importantly, it removed the dismal inevitability of that cycle. It claimed that population growth exerts pressure on societies, which they channel in complex and idiosyncratic ways. The analogy he uses is that of an earthquake. Seismic forces accumulate beneath a plateau until it starts to shake, but whether the buildings on the plateau stand, fall or sustain some intermediate level of damage depends on how they were constructed. That is why revolutions cluster in history, but within a given period of turbulence not all societies succumb. Goldstone recognised that the different components of a society – state, elites, masses – would respond differently to strain, but that they would also interact. In other words, he was dealing with a complex system whose behaviour was best captured mathematically. His model of why revolutions occur consists of a set of equations, but a crude verbal description goes something like this: as the population grows there comes a point where it outstrips the ability of the land to support it. The standard of living of the masses falls, increasing their potential for violent mobilisation. The state tries to counteract this – for example, by capping rents – but such measures alienate the elite whose financial interests they hurt. Since the elite has also been expanding, and competing ever more fiercely for a finite pool of high-status jobs and trappings, the class as a whole is less willing to accept further losses. So the state must tap its own coffers to quell the masses, driving up national debt. The more indebted it becomes, the less flexibility it has to respond to further strains. Eventually, marginalised members of the elite side with the masses against the state, violence breaks out and the government is too weak to contain it. Goldstone suggested ways of measuring mass mobilisation potential, elite competition and state solvency, and defined something he called the political stress indicator (psi or Ψ), which was the product of all three. He showed that Ψ spiked prior to the French Revolution, the English civil war and two other major 17th-century conflicts – the Ottoman crisis in Asia Minor, and the Ming-Qing transition in China. In each case, however, there had been one more factor in the mix: chance. Some tiny rupture – a harvest failure, say, or a foreign aggression – that in other circumstances might have been absorbed easily, against a backdrop of rising Ψ caused conflict to erupt. Although you could not predict the trigger – meaning you could not know precisely when the crisis would occur – you could measure the structural pressures and hence, the risk of such a crisis. It was a simple model, and Goldstone acknowledged as much. Although he could show that high Ψ predicted historical revolutions, he had no way of predicting what came next. That depended on the precise combination of the three components of Ψ, and on how they interacted with a given society’s institutions. Incomplete as they were, his efforts led him to see revolution in a depressing new light: not as a democratic correction to an inflexible and corrupt ancien regime, but as a response to an ecological crisis – the inability of a society to absorb rapid population growth – that rarely resolved that crisis. Nor were these patterns confined to the past. As Goldstone was putting the finishing touches to his magnum opus, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, the Soviet Union was unravelling. He pointed out that Ψ had risen dramatically across the Soviet bloc in the two decades prior to 1989, and that it was persistently high in developing countries. He also wrote that: “It is quite astonishing the degree to which the United States today is, in respect of its state finances and its elites’ attitudes, following the path that led early modern states to crisis.” When Goldstone’s book came out in 1991, historians were scathing. The British historian Lawrence Stone, writing in The New York Review of Books, described Goldstone’s work as “far too bold and vague in constructing a thing called a political stress indicator, which is about as real as a unicorn”. Goldstone admits that it did not have the impact he had hoped. “Both the book and I fell a little bit between the cracks,” he recalls. Then one day in 1997 he got a call from Peter Turchin. At the time, Turchin was going through what he jokingly calls his “mid-life crisis” – when, aged 40, he ditched biology and ran off with history. Part of what attracted him to the question of why societies implode is that he had personally witnessed one self-destruct. He was born in Russia, but his family defected to the US in 1978, and he did not return to Moscow until 1992. “That was the year things collapsed completely,” he recalls. It was December – “dark, horrible. There were drunk people lying everywhere.” He and his wife passed a blown-up car on the way to the market and watched mafiosi extort cash from terrified stallholders while the police looked on. These were images that stayed with him. When Turchin came across Goldstone’s book, he found it “remarkable”, he says. But the model was incomplete: “He described how societies got into crisis, not how they got out of it.” So Turchin decided to complete the model, and to find out whether it applied to human societies over a much greater swathe of time and space. Goldstone had focused on the early modern period – roughly the four centuries from 1500; Turchin would push the survey’s start date back nearly 8,000 years, to the Neolithic. That meant collecting vast quantities of data, and in this he was lucky: history’s quantitative turn, which had begun with the plundering of those parish registers in the 1970s, had only accelerated in the decades since. Though the historical record remained fragmented and patchy, it was now possible to say novel things about how extinct people lived even when there was no written trace of them – and better still, from a mathematician’s point of view, to put numbers on them. Ice cores from Greenland turn out to be an exquisite proxy for economic activity in Europe, for example, because the permafrost traps pollution and tracks its fluctuations over centuries. The size and construction of aristocrats’ villas speak to elite competition, and coin hoards to anxieties about looming strife, while skeletal malformations reveal malnutrition – a proxy for standard of living. The informational value of these proxies had long been recognised, but now there was quantitative data on them spanning decades and sometimes centuries, meaning that you could discern trends over time. The more proxies you had for a given variable, the more accurate a picture of the past you could paint. In Historical Dynamics, in 2003, Turchin demonstrated a pattern of secular cycles in the societies that evolved into modern-day France and Russia from the first millennium BC until roughly 1800. He also showed that there were shorter oscillations in the stability of these societies, lasting about 50 years, which he called “fathers-and-sons cycles”: perceiving a social injustice, one generation set out to redress it violently, the next shrank from violence having grown up with its aftermath, the third started all over again. Many scholars were as sceptical of Turchin as they had been of Goldstone a dozen years before. “Serious historians,” Joseph Tainter, a historian and anthropologist at Utah State University, wrote in Nature, “have long held cyclical theories in disrepute.” But Turchin had only just got started. He poured his energy into data collection, and in 2010 – as a way of better organising those data to support comparison across societies – he and two anthropologists at the University of Oxford launched Seshat, a database of historical and archaeological information named after the ancient Egyptian goddess of record-keeping. Seshat has come in for criticism of the kind that has been directed at big data more generally. Just because there is lots of it, critics say, does not mean that the data is more reliable. On the contrary, such a database risks amplifying the interpretative biases of those who initially recorded the information, while stripping it of its context. Seshat’s founders counter that bias is a problem in history generally, and only the analysis of large quantities of data allows a signal – something approaching the truth – to detach itself from that noise. To date, Seshat’s founders and their 90-odd “expert collaborators” – including eminent historians, archaeologists and anthropologists – have gathered data on societies from the lowland Andes to the Cambodian basin and Iceland to Upper Egypt. Analysing these, Turchin showed that the same two interacting cycles – secular and fathers-and-sons – fit patterns of instability across Europe and Asia going back as far as the first farmers. They were there in ancient Egypt, China and Rome – in every pre-industrial society he looked at. The next question was obvious: were these cycles also at play in modern, industrial societies? Turchin updated Ψ to reflect the forces shaping a modern labour market, and chose new proxies appropriate to an industrialised world. These included real wages for the mobilisation potential of the masses; filibustering rates in the Senate and the cost of tuition at Yale for elite competition; and interest rates for state solvency. Then he calculated Ψ in the US from 1780 to the present day. It was low in the so-called Era of Good Feelings around 1820, high in the 1860s – around the American civil war – and low again in the years after the second world war. Since 1970 it had risen steadily. This did not mean we were doomed to crisis, though. Many societies had avoided disaster – and Turchin was building a model to find out how they had done it. In the late 1980s, Turchin had travelled to the forests of Louisiana, where the timber industry funded his research into periodic and costly infestations of a pest called the southern pine beetle. At the time, the standard procedure for controlling the beetle was to spray pesticide at the site of an infestation. Turchin showed that this only prolonged an attack, because it killed off another beetle that was a natural predator of the pest. A better strategy was to fell and remove affected trees. More broadly, he had shown that it was possible to intervene in a complex ecological system to make its crises less severe and maximise its chances of recovery. Turchin hopes to discover similar strategies for easing crises in human societies. If the approach that he and Goldstone take to modelling history is right, it means that they can meaningfully ask not only what 2020 has in store for us, but also what the future holds stretching forward over centuries. We should not expect any prophecies from this new science of history, but it could help us to identify structural threats to our societies’ stability and to act to mitigate them. While societies tend to enter crisis via the path that Goldstone charted, Turchin has found that they leave it via a range of possible trajectories, from rapid recovery to total collapse. That is because crisis renders a society exquisitely sensitive to external perturbation. If no other destabilising thing happens, it could recover – as England did after the almost bloodless Glorious Revolution of 1688. But one small extra shock could push it towards a worse outcome, even to collapse. The Soviet Union was already in decline before the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986, but Mikhail Gorbachev may not have been entirely wrong when he blamed its downfall on that event. To understand this phase of the cycle better, Turchin and others plan to build computer-simulated societies composed of thousands or millions of individuals – so-called agent-based models – and programme them to behave according to the laws they have deduced from real societies. They can subject those simulated societies to stress, for example by injecting a virtual youth bulge, and observe the downstream effects on state, elites and masses. Once Ψ has reached dangerously high levels, they can add a shock – in the form of a foreign invasion, say – or increase resilience by strengthening the society’s infrastructure, and see how it responds. They can ask such questions as: what does it take to nudge a society in crisis toward total collapse? What interventions would divert it towards a less bloody outcome? Why are some societies more resilient than others? Of course, our experience with the climate crisis suggests that even if we can predict the future the way we can forecast the weather, and come up with a set of preventative measures to stave off social collapse, that does not mean we will be able to muster the political will to act on such recommendations. But while it is true that human societies have in general been far better at reconstruction after disasters than preventing them in the first place, there are exceptions. Turchin points to the US New Deal of the 1930s, which he sees as a time when American elites consented to share their growing wealth more equitably, in return for the implicit agreement that “the fundamentals of the political-economic system would not be challenged”. This pact, Turchin argues, enabled American society to exit a potentially revolutionary situation. Goldstone continues to spread the message that such pacts can work again. Now a professor of public policy at George Mason University in Virginia, he advises the National Intelligence Council – the US intelligence body responsible for long-term strategy – but says his ideas have had little impact so far. At a workshop on societal collapse at Princeton University last April, someone asked him why historical societies had so often failed to act even when the signs of a looming crisis were impossible to ignore. He suggested it was because elites continue to live the high life for some time after things start falling apart, buffered from the upheaval by their wealth and privileges. Turchin believes that historians will soon embrace complexity science, just as biologists did half a century ago. They will come to realise that it allows them to see deeper and further, to discern patterns that are not visible to the human eye. In fact, it is already happening. In the last few years, a handful of institutions have been created, such as the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, whose goal is to encourage policymakers to think about the long-term lessons of history. The Princeton meeting was attended by a risk analyst employed by the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, who thinks about how to make the US more resilient to future threats by reference to the past. To Turchin, these are all encouraging developments, but 2020 is nearly upon us, and lawmaking institutions in both the US and the UK are now so divided along ideological lines that they can barely function. In both countries, disgruntled members of the elite have taken power in the name of the people, while failing to address the underlying causes of the malaise: widening inequality, a swollen elite, a fragile state. Goldstone offers what consolation he can. “Nobody in the 1930s could have imagined how rich Europe would be by the 1960s, or that the entire continent would become unified,” he says. “Bad as things may get for a decade or two, they’re liable to be much better once you get through the crisis.” It’s the consolation inherent in a cyclic view of history: that beyond every fall there is another rise, just as beyond every rise there is another fall. Things will be good once again, for those of us who are still around to see it. • Follow the Long Read on Twitter at @gdnlongread, and sign up to the long read weekly email here. | ||
| Russians provoke and predict civil war in America - Google Search | ||
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| American Civil War in 2010, Russian Academic Says | ||
Photo illustration by Hamish Robertson.
With the beginning of 2009 looming, everyone seems to be nostalgic for the recent past. What with the countless arbitrary best-of and top ten lists, no one seems to be thinking about the future right now. Except Russian academic Igor Panarin who has been pondering the future of the U.S. for about a decade now, predicting the disintegration of our country and the next Civil War. Mark your calendars: it's slated for 2010! According to Panarin, starting January 1, America will begin a 12-month disintegration. The Wall Street Journal reports that Panarin forecasts "mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall." So, should 18-year-olds prepare to dodge the draft? How will this effect the college football season? Will journalists be able to cover this potential civil war wholly unbiased? Only time will tell. In the meantime, The Wall Street Journal breaks down Panarin's theory on America's apocalyptic, um, breakdown: California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.A French political scientist predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union 15 years before it happened. With the recession and the ever-present immigration argument, let's hope this Panarin guy is wrong. | ||
| Igor Panarin - Wikipedia | ||
Igor Nikolaevich Panarin (Russian: И́горь Никола́евич Пана́рин, Russian pronunciation: [ˈiɡərʲ nʲɪkɐˈlaɪvʲɪtɕ pɐˈnarʲɪn]; born 30 October 1958)[1] is a Russian professor and political scientist.[2] He is best known for predicting in 1998 that the United States would disintegrate within the next few years.[citation needed]
Igor Panarin has written 15 books[3] and a number of articles on information warfare, psychology, and geopolitics. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, BBC, Sky News) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the U.S., etc.[4] Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme.[5] He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople.[6] His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.[citation needed] | ||
| Russia Predicts Next Presidential Election Could Cause a Second American Civil War | ||
Russia Predicts Next Presidential Election Could Cause a Second American Civil War RIA Novosti
Russian state-owned news outlet
“American and British academics admit that an intrastate confrontation may begin soon in the United States.”
Misleading
The article distorts the writers’ opinions.
On October 30, just a week before the U.S. midterm elections, RIA Novosti and several other Russian news outlets published stories predicting a civil conflict in the U.S. The spate of stories, more than 30 according to Foreign Policy Magazine, come “ahead of a hotly contested congressional election in the United States next week.” According to RIA Novosti, American political scientists were making this prediction, not Russians. However, upon closer examination, the authors of the articles cited by Russian media were far more nuanced, and cannot be said to have made serious predictions of a coming U.S. civil war.
Another article cited in the RIA Novosti piece comes from Task & Purpose, a military veterans news site, and was authored by Emily Whalen, a doctoral candidate in history at the University of Texas at Austin. Whalen compares the situation in America today to that of Lebanon, which suffered a devastating civil war in 1975. While she notes some similarities between 2018 America and 1975 Lebanon, she also points out key differences, and ultimately makes no prediction that a new American civil war will take place in the near future. | ||
| Евгений Гильбо: глобальный прогноз о России, США, и судьбах мира - YouTube | ||
Евгений Гильбо: глобальный прогноз о России, США, и судьбах мира | ||
| Russians provoke and predict civil war in America - Google Search | ||
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Claim: “American and British academics admit that an intrastate confrontation may begin soon in the United States.”
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Fact check by POLYGRAPH.info: Misleading
Igor Nikolaevich Panarin is a Russian professor and political scientist. He is best known for predicting in 1998 that the United States would disintegrate within the next few years. Igor Panarin has written 15 books and a number of articles on information warfare, psychology, and geopolitics. ... After 1991, he worked in the FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. ...
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Dec 29, 2008 - For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010.
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Dec 29, 2008 - Are you ready for the next Civil War? ... future of the U.S. for about a decade now, predicting the disintegration of our country and the next Civil War. ... economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall.
Coming US civil war: Russia seizes on talk of Trump split
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Nov 5, 2018 - US civil war 'coming': Russia seizes on talk of US split — but did it help ... could lead to a definitive split in American society and a new civil war,” blares ... “In Harvard they're predicting war within the United States,” blares a ...
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Dec 29, 2008 - Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of ...
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Silber has done extensive research on the Civil War over more than two decades and has written several ... with all the radical liberal economic and social change that has only lead to the further decline of the American society. ... Russian troll.
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Nov 5, 2018 - “The next presidential election could lead to a definitive split in American society and a new civil war,” blares the unsurprisingly state-run RIA ...
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Apr 20, 2015 - Could a U.S. response to Russia's actions in Ukraine provoke a ... observed that the United States had won the Cold War, but had not yet won the peace. ... took seriously predictions that Islamic extremists would dominate the ...
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Jan 10, 2019 - A senior Russian official has canceled a planned visit to the United States, claiming he feared a second civil war being waged by opposing ...
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Aug 14, 2017 - Robin Wright talks to five historians specializing in the American Civil War about whether the U.S. is headed for a new sectarian conflict. ... Other experts' predictions ranged from five per cent to ninety-five per cent. The sobering consensus was ... “Whether they will lead to civil war, I doubt. We have strong ...
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"Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050. ... It's worth noting that the American revolution was a civil war as was the War of 1812-1814 in many ways. ... There is no 'cause' identifiable in western societies around which an insurrection can formAmericans Say U.S. Is Two-Thirds of the Way to Civil War
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Oct 24, 2019 - A poll from Georgetown shows that Americans think the country is 67 ... Asked how close the country is to the “edge of a civil war” — with 0 being not ... that if he's removed from office it will cause “a Civil War like fracture in this ... Trump Is Mad Russia Is Interfering in the 2020 Election on His Behalf: Report.
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And what will this mean for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army? ... Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war began in 2015. ... What might cause Moscow to take similar actions in other conflicts beyond its immediate ... of what Russia considers to be redlines, predicting its reactions is challenging.
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Dec 3, 2018 - To restate that theme: The new US-Russian Cold War is more dangerous ... The cause was combat subterfuge by Israeli warplanes in the area.
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| Trump’s Fury at Intel Briefing Shows Putin’s Bet on Him Keeps Paying Off | ||
Trump’s Fury at Intel Briefing Shows Putin’s Bet on Him Keeps Paying Off
NOT SICK OF WINNING
The GOP wants you to believe Trump is tough on Russia, so why does Moscow love him so much? The Kremlin's state media make that clear almost every day.
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| 5:11 AM 2/21/2020 - Post Link - News Review: Richard Grenell, Elections Security, and other stories | ||
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| Intel officials warned House lawmakers Russia is interfering to get Trump reelected: NYT | TheHill | ||
Intelligence officials warned House lawmakers last week that Russia is interfering in the 2020 campaign to get President Trump
 Donald John TrumpChasten Buttigieg: 'I've been dealing with the likes of Rush Limbaugh my entire life' Lawmakers paint different pictures of Trump's 'opportunity zone' program We must not turn our heads from the effects of traumatic brain injuries MORE reelected, The New York Times reported Thursday.
The Feb. 13 briefing by top election security officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to the House Intelligence Committee reportedly prompted Trump to berate now-former acting DNI Joseph Maguire, accusing him of disloyalty for allowing the briefing.
Trump reportedly worried Democrats would use the intelligence information against him, particularly citing concerns with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff
 Adam Bennett SchiffGraham: Trump has 'all the legal authority in the world' to pardon Stone Roger Stone sentenced to over three years in prison Top intelligence community lawyer leaving position MORE (Calif.), one of the Democrats who led the impeachment investigation against him, being present during the briefing.
Maguire is now set to step down as acting DNI. He will be replaced by U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell. Trump thanked Maguire for his service on Wednesday in announcing the change, tweeting “we look forward to working with him closely, perhaps in another capacity within the Administration!”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and a spokesperson for Schiff did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Times report.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
 Charles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerDemocratic senators urge Trump administration to request emergency funding for coronavirus response Barr to testify before House Judiciary panel Graham won't call Barr to testify over Roger Stone sentencing recommendation MORE (D-N.Y.) tweeted Thursday that "now we know why" Republicans in the Senate continue blocking election security bills, linking to the New York Times article.
"They'd rather let Putin win then stand up to President Trump," he tweeted.
Senate Republicans have repeatedly blocked bills designed to bolster election security, citing concerns around federalizing elections. But Republicans supported the inclusion of
$425 million in an appropriations bill, later signed into law, to help states boost election security efforts.
The Washington Post reported earlier Thursday that Shelby Pierson, the principal adviser at ODNI for election security and the intelligence community’s Election Threats Executive, led last week's congressional briefing.
Pierson was appointed by former DNI Dan Coats in 2019. Coats left the administration that same year after disagreements with Trump over issues including election security.
Pierson told NPR last month that she was concerned about interference in the 2020 elections from multiple nations.
"This isn't a Russia-only problem," Pierson said on "Morning Edition."
"We're still also concerned about China, Iran, non-state actors, 'hacktivists.' And frankly ... even Americans might be looking to undermine confidence in the elections," Pierson added.
A spokesperson for Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr Richard Mauze BurrPelosi joins pressure campaign on Huawei Senate braces for fight over impeachment whistleblower testimony US prosecutors bring new charges against China's Huawei MORE (R-N.C.) declined to comment on the Times story. Burr, along with Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner Mark Robert WarnerTrump officially makes Richard Grenell acting intelligence chief Top Democrat on Senate Intel panel pans Trump's DNI pick Trump expected to tap Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell as acting intel chief MORE (D-Va.), led a years-long bipartisan investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections, with three reports from this investigation released so far, and two more to come.
Warner on Wednesday expressed outrage at the selection of Grenell as acting DNI, pointing to his lack of experience in intelligence issues.
House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) on Thursday said Trump "has been in denial about foreign election interference for three years because his ego cannot accept that Russia interfered on his behalf."
"By firing Acting DNI Maguire because his staff provided the candid conclusions of the Intelligence Community to Congress regarding Russian meddling in the 2020 Presidential election, the President is not only refusing to defend against foreign interference, he’s inviting it," Thompson said in a statement.
Updated at 6:13 p.m.
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Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections was a report issued by the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence that made an assessment of the extent and basis of Russia's interference in United States' elections in 2016.
Publication date: January 6, 2017
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The EPIC Democracy and Cybersecurity Project has pursued multiple FOIA cases concerning Russian interference with the 2016 election, including EPIC v.
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Jan 6, 2017 - The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has published a ... Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections," written by CIA, FBI, and NSA. ... Releases Third Volume of Russian Election Interference Report.
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Jul 19, 2019 - Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats named Shelby Pierson as the ... involved in interference or influence efforts following an election.
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Jan 22, 2020 - In an exclusive interview with NPR, election threats executive Shelby Pierson says more nations may attempt more types of interference in the U.S.. ... ODNI and the intelligence community have the funding they need, the ...
Here's the new plan for election cyberthreat notifications
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On January 6, 2017, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) ... Interference in America's democracy and our electoral process by any outside ...
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The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the National Security Agency ... ODNI, DoJ, FBI, DHS Declare Election Interference 'Top Priority'.
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Nov 15, 2019 - According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the ... presidential election, which saw widespread Russian interference ...
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Nov 5, 2019 - Joint Statement from DOJ, DOD, DHS, DNI, FBI, NSA, and CISA on ... Election security is a top priority for the United States Government. ... Russia, China, Iran, and other foreign malicious actors all will seek to interfere in the ...
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