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The National Interest: Why Lukashenko Will Prevail in Belarus

Michael_Novakhov shared this story from 1. US Security from Michael_Novakhov (87 sites).

Melinda Haring
Security, Eurasia
Reuters

Large-scale protests are expected this weekend, but they may not be enough to threaten Lukashenkos rule in any serious fashion.

For twenty-six years, Alexander Lukashenko has reigned supreme over Belarus, the sleepy eastern European nation of nine million people nestled between Poland and Russia. 
Opposition movements come and go with regularity, but Lukashenko has effectively quashed any form of dissidence.
This time its not proving quite as easy as in the past. For one, his countrymen are fed up. He has botched the response to the coronavirus, exhorting his countrymen to get on their tractors (without masks, of course) and adopt the novel course of quaffing vodka to repel the virus. The resulting astronomical rates of the coronavirus were to be expected (some of the highest in Europe), but Belarusians were less than impressed. They banded together and provided personal protective gear and medical help in a way that prompted many to question why they pay taxes to an incompetent authoritarian in the first place.
No one expected the August 2020 presidential election to be interesting. But Lukashenko, in addition to blundering in his response to the pandemic, concluded that holding elections in August would make for distracted voters who were more interested in spending their time at their dachas and counting their summer tomato harvest. He was wrong again. Normally, Belarus holds elections in the dead of winter, and protesting in Minsk in January or February only brings out a righteous few. In the past, opposition parties have only been able to mobilize measly frozen crowds in frigid temperatures. 
But Lukashenko miscalculated in allowing a woman to stand against him. After his apparatchiks disqualified a slew of qualified men, including a political blogger and the countrys top banker, their wives and proxies banded together and organized
Svitalana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of popular political blogger Siarhei Tsikhanousky, was the result. She very likely won the presidential race on August 9. A day later, after being threatened, she fled to Vilnius, Lithuania, where she remains the symbol of the resistance. But the disparate opposition isnt ready for prime time, and probably is not even fit to run the Minsk city council. Theres strife within the protest movement,l itself. Whats more, Tsikhanouskaya herself doesnt even want to become president, a sentiment she uttered often during the campaign.
Large-scale protests are expected this weekend, but they may not be enough to threaten Lukashenkos rule in any serious fashion. He and his camarilla have throttled the Internet, severing Belarusians access to free information. Several million people now receive updates from Telegram on their mobile phones. 
The non-violent nature of the protests and the heroic scenes of plucky grannies defying Lukashenkos thuggish security forces are apt to remind many of Poland in the 1980s. However, the future of the protests is uncertain. The European Union has threatened sanctions. The State Department has issued platitudes. Belarus is inconsequential geopolitically and the United States remains fixated internally on its upcoming presidential election and its lackluster response to the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, Russia is working quietly and not so quietly. Moscow sent broadcasters to replace the Belarusian media workers who quit in protest and advisors to help Lukashenko. Putin has also announced on Russian state television that he is prepared to assist Lukashenko with a police reserve force if the situation gets out of control. It may take months to sort it all out, but Moscow always plays the long game. And America? Once again, its on the sidelines, bereft of influence and authority.
Melinda Haring is the deputy director of the Atlantic Councils Eurasia Center. She tweets at @melindaharing. 
Image: Reuters



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9:30 AM 9/11/2020 - Transverse Myelitis, Possible Adverse Reaction to COVID-19 Vaccine, Explained | Coronavirus Infects, Hijacks Brain - How Does It Work? | How Russia Updated Its Disinformation Playbook for 2020

7:09 AM 9/5/2020 - fbi surveillance Google News: Peter Strzok, Notorious Ex-G-Man, Explains Himself And Takes Aim At Trump

Audio Post - The Tip Of An Iceberg: Sexual Misconduct Within The FBI Is Exposed by AP! Investigate The Investigators who are nothing more and nothing less than a bunch of psychopaths, perverts, and child abusers. Abolish the FBI and put the criminal FBI agents in prison where they belong! The present crisis in America is the direct result of the FBI stupidity, treacherous incompetence and malfeasance.

11:16 AM 4/1/2020 - Look at the Coronavirus map of New York City, it speaks for itself: This is the real Collusion: Trump + Russian Mafia! They conspired to bring to reality the old dream of Trump's: to get rid of the NYC eyesore, its public housing projects, and to build the luxury housing instead, making themselves the tens of billions of bloody $$$.

7:26 AM 9/2/2020 - "That truncated FBI investigation that needs to be resumed immediately." (!!! - M.N.) | There Was No Russia Investigation.

10:06 AM 9/1/2020 - Trump to Visit Kenosha After Sparring with Biden Over Security

5:56 PM 3/29/2020 - Coronavirus Deaths in Germany: Is there a different, less virulent strain of the virus?! Did we do the comparison studies?

8:42 PM 4/1/2020 - Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠: Coronavirus Could Spread Through Pipes in Buildings, Officials Fear

8:51 AM 8/30/2020 - "ванька встанька" - ("Teflon effect"): "Putin’s approval rating has jumped to one of its highest levels since February as Russia continues its recovery from the coronavirus outbreak".